CSULA - Geology 357: Population & Urbanization

The Beginning Of Cities
- Civilization
  - “any distinct society, whether complex and city-dwelling, or simple and tribal.” (From Wikipedia)
  - This definition is often perceived as
    - less exclusive and ethnocentric than others
    - nearly synonymous with culture
- Earliest Areas to have Cities
  - Near East
    - Mesopotamia (Sumerian Culture)
    - Nile Valley (Egyptian)
    - Indus River Valley (Harappan)
  - Far East
    - Yellow River Valley (Shang)
  - Mesoamerica
    - Mexico (Aztec and Maya)
    - Peru (Inca)
- Natural Determinants for these Cities
  - Topography
  - Climate - 5 of 6 are between 20° & 40° N. Lat
  - Construction Materials
  - Resources
- Earliest Areas to have Cities
  - Human Determinants
    - Religion,
    - Ethnic Grouping,
    - Defense,
    - Economics
- Growth of Modern Cities
  - The Same Determinants Exist
    - Cities have grown huge
    - Area of impact extends far beyond the city
    - Geologic hazards are completely ignored.
Population
- DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION
  - People per Square Mile in 1998 (1999 World Almanac)

Earth Land Area	104
United States	74
Mexico	130
China	335
India	805
Japan	863
Los Angeles	7,600
New York City	24,000
Tokyo	25,000
Manhattan	75,000
Bombay	127,000
Hong Kong	247,000

Urbanization or Suburbanization
- Percent in urban areas in the U.S.
  - 1800 - 6%
  - 1850 - 15%
  - 1900 - 40%
  - 1970 - 70%
  - 1998 - 76%
The World's Largest Cities 1995
- Population (in millions) Growth Rate

City	Population (In Millions)	Growth Rate (%)
Tokyo	27	1.45
Mexico City	16.6	1.81
Sao Paulo, Brazil	16.5	1.81
NYC	16.3	0.34
Bombay	15.1	4.24
Shanghai	13.6	0.36
Los Angeles	12.4	1.6
Calcutta	11.9	1.81
Buenos Aires	11.8	1.15
Seoul	11.6	1.92

World’s Largest Countries in 2002

Rank	Country	Population (millions)
1	China	1,281
2	India	1,050
3	United States	287
4	Indonesia	217
5	Brazil	174
6	Russia	144
7	Pakistan	144
8	Bangladesh	134
9	Nigeria	130
10	Japan	127
11	Mexico	102
12	Germany	82
13	Philippines	80
14	Vietnam	80
15	Egypt	71

World�s Largest Countries in 2050

Rank	Country	Population (millions)
1	India	1,628
2	China	1,394
3	United States	413
4	Pakistan	332
5	Indonesia	316
6	Nigeria	304
7	Brazil	247
8	Bangladesh	205
9	Congo	182
10	Ethiopia	173
11	Mexico	151
12	Philippines	146
13	Vietnam	117
14	Egypt	115
15	Russia	102

source: Copyright 2003, Population Reference Bureau.

Age Structures & Population Dynamics
- Population Pyramid
  - Shown as two back-to-back bar graphs in a particular population in five-year age groups
    - one showing the number of males (left side)
    - one showing the number of females (right side)
  - Shape of the Age Distribution
    - Stage 1
      - Both high birth rates and death rates fluctuate
      - Small population growth
      - Reasons
        
        little access to birth control
        
        many children die in infancy (high infant mortality) so parents tend to have more children to compensate in the hopes that more will live
        
        children are needed to work on the land to grow food for the family
        
        children are regarded as a sign of virility in some cultures
        
        religious beliefs (e.g. Roman Catholics and Hindus) encourage large families
        
        high death rates, especially among children because of disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science.
    - Stage 2
      - Birth rates remain high, but death rates fall rapidly
      - Causes a high population growth
      - Possible reasons:
        
        improvements in medical care - hosppitals, medicines, etc.
        
        improvements in sanitation and water supply
        
        quality and quantity of food produced rises
        
        transport and communications improve the movements of food and medical supplies
        
        decrease in infant mortality.
    - Stage 3
      - Birth rates now fall rapidly while death rates continue to fall.
      - The total population begins to peak and the population increase slows to a constant.
      - The reasons for this could be:
        
        increased access to contraception
        
        lower infant mortality rate means there is less need to have a bigger family
        
        industrialisation and mechanisation means fewer labourers are required
        
        the desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families as wealth increases
        
        equality for women means that they are able to follow a career path rather than feeling obligated to have a family.
    - Stage 4
      - Both birth rates and death rates remain low, fluctuating with 'baby booms' and epidemics of illnesses and disease.
      - This results in a steady population.
    - Triangular population distribution
      - Indicates a population in which there is a high birth rate, a high death rate and a short life expectancy.
      - Note that there tend to be more females than males in each age group. (females tend to have a longer life expectancy.)
      - Typical pattern for a less economically developed country
        
        little access to or incentive to use birth control,
        
        poor hygiene (often due to a lack of clean water)
        
        and little access to health services.
    - Rectangular population distribution
      - Indicates a population in which there few children and young people, and the lack of change in size between consecutive age groups that very few people die until they reach old age.
      - Typical pattern for a economically developed country
        
        low birth and death rates
        
        long life expectancy,
        
        contraception is widely used
        
        good public hygiene and health care.
  - Growth Potential
    - The proportion under 15 years old is a measure of future growth potential
  - Future Growth of the U.S. Population
    - Growth will continue into the next century

Demographic Projections

Effect of Doubling Rates
- Doubling 1 cent/day example
  - 15th day $160/day
  - 25th day $167,733/day
World Population 6.00 billion in 2000
- Doubling rate of 65 years in 2000
  - compares with 35 years for 1970
  - 1970 rate for 1000 years would give a world population of 73 quadrillion
    - 120 per square yard over the entire Earth
- Growth rate (GR) = 1.1% (74 million/year)
- Births/1000 people = 22
- Deaths/1000 people = 9

Under Developed vs Developed Countries

Pop (2000)	Births/1000	Deaths/1000	GR	DR
1.33 Billion	15	10	0.7	100 years
5.69 Billion	31 - 34	12 - 13	2.1	33 years

North America - US and Canada
- US + Canada
  - 1999 population = 301 million
  - GR 0.8%/yr
  - DR 87 years
  - 2025 population = 373 million
- U.S. alone
  - 1999 population = 270 million
  - GR 0.9%/yr
  - DR 78 years
  - 2025 population = 335 million
Latin America
- 1999 population = 507 million
  - GR 2.3%/yr
  - DR 38 years
  - 2025 population = 695 million
- Individual countries

Country	GR	DR	1999 Population
Costa Rica	1.90%	38 Years	3.6 Million
Mexico	2.10%	34 Years	99 Million
Brazil	1.30%	55 Years�	170 Million

Europe
- 1999 population = 508 million
  - GR 0.3%
  - DR 233 years
  - 2025 population = 491 million
Africa
- 1999 population = 761 million
  - GR 2.9%
  - DR 24 years
  - 2025 population = 1,323 million
Asia Excluding Russia
- 1999 population = 3,528 million
  - GR 1.9%
  - DR 37 years
  - 2025 population = 4.7 billion
- Individual countries

Country	GR	DR	1999 Population
Japan	0.20%	36 Years	126 Million
China	0.90%	80 Years	1.24 Million
India	1.70%	42 Years�	984 Million

The Extreme Growth Rate
- The Growth Rate Itself has been Increasing for 1000 years

World Population
Date	Pop (Millions)	GR
1000	275	<0.1%
1650	500	0.10%
1800	1,000	0.50%
1920	2,000	0.60%
1965	4,000	1.60%
1980	4,300	1.70%
1995	5,642	1.80%
2000	6,000	1.70%

The Earth's Carrying Capacity
- Carrying Capacity Depends on Resources and Life Style
  - If all of the world's people are to have the American life style, then the Earth's carrying capacity has been greatly exceeded
    - 10 of the 20 most important mineral resources would be exhausted in 10 years
- Possible Future Growth Curves Assuming a Low Living Standard for UDC's
  - The population rises to and levels off at the carrying capacity
  - Population overshoots carrying capacity and falls back to a still high level
  - Population overshoots the original carrying capacity, damages the Earth, and falls to a new, low-level carrying capacity
  - Continuous growth is the impossible curve
- Food Supplies Will Be the First Victim of Environmental Apocalypse
  - Through history world grain production per capita has increased
    - World grain production per capita since 1984 has been declining
  - World grain supply in storage has declined each year since 1992
    - This means that the world is consuming more grain that it produces each year
    - In addition, 13 of the world's 17 major marine fisheries are declining
  - Factors which reduce the carrying capacity of Earth
    - eroding soils
    - shrinking forests
    - deteriorating range lands
    - expanding desert
    - acid rain
    - ozone hole
    - global warming
    - air pollution
    - loss of biological diversity

The Focus of This Class
- Focus of this class
  - Learn about natural disasters, and the geologic processes that are responsible
  - Examine how natural disasters affect undeveloped nations
- Environmental
  - concerned with the ecological effects of altering the environment; “environmental pollution”
    geology
  - The science which treats: (a) Of the structure and mineral constitution of the globe; structural geology. (b) Of its history as regards rocks, minerals, rivers, valleys, mountains, climates, life, etc.; historical geology. (c) Of the causes and methods by which its structure, features, changes, and conditions have been produced; dynamical geology.
  - Source: Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary, © 1996, 1998 MICRA, Inc.
- What is a Natural Disaster?
  - An event of nature that releases energy upon an area, causing destruction of property and loss of human life.A
  - subdiscipline of Environmental Geology
- What is a Natural Hazard?
  - A hazard that arises from geological or weather-related occurrences.
    - Includes:
      - Earthquakes
      - Volcanoes
      - Floods
      - Storms / Hurricanes / Tornadoes
- Natural Hazard Definitions
  - Magnitude
    - The size of the event
  - Frequency
    - How often the event happens
  - Return Period
    - The time between two events of the same size
Losses from Natural Disasters
- Losses from Natural Disasters - Human Fatalities
  - Worst Disasters:
    - Floods
    - Hurricanes
    - Earthquakes
    - Severe Weather
  - Least:
    - Tsunami and Volcanic eruptions
- Amount varies from year to year
  - The population density of a region affects number of fatalities
- Losses from Natural Disasters - Economic
  - Sources
    - Buildings and other structures
    - Industry and businesses
  - Insured Portion of Economic Losses
    - Amount covered by insurance
    - Dollar amount lost is different than lives lost
    - US, Europe and Japan have fewer lives lost but higher damage costs
Energy Sources of Disasters
- Primary Sources
- Impacts with Asteroids and Comets
  - Origin of the Sun & Planets
- Gravity
  - Attraction between two or more objects
  - Interaction between the sun, moon and Earth produces tidal energy
  - Spring Tides
    - During the period of a new moon, the moon and sun are lined up on the same side of the Earth
    - Produces the greatest range between high water and low water
  - Neap Tides
    - Produced when the moon is at a right angle to the line of centers of the Earth and the sun
    - The range between high and low water is small
- Internal Heat
  - Impact energy from the formation of the planet
  - Gravitational energy
  - Radioactive Elements
- The Sun
  - Small percentage of total solar energy reaches the Earth
  - More than 3500 times greater than Earth’s interior heat flow
  - Where does the energy go?
    - 30% -> Albedo (reflection)
    - 47 % -> Absorbed by air, sea and land
    - 23 % -> Evaporation / begin hydrologic cycle
External Sources of Energy
- The Hydrologic Cycle
- Energy Transfer
  - The transfer of energy from one substance to another
- Heat Capacity
  - the amount of heat required to raise one gram of a substance 1°C
Questions To Ponder
- Grain Exporting Countries Have Special Ethical Questions
  - Should Grain Exporting Countries Restrict Exports To Maintain Low Prices At Home With Other Nations Starve?
  - Should Grain Exporting Countries Use Grain As A Political Weapon The Way Oil Exporters Used Oil?
- Other Ethical Problems Are Presented. For Example:
  - Every Couple Has A Right To As Many Children As They Wish.
  - Every Child Has A Right To Adequate Nutrition.
  - Can A Crowded Earth Grant Both Rights?
- Are They UDC's Or NDC's?
- Whose Population Growth Is Worse - Us Or India?
- Is The Population Problem Behind Most Environmental Problems?
- Should You Reproduce At Age 20 Or 30?
- Is There Any Justification For Having 3 Children?
- Has The Quality Of Life Peaked Out?
- Can Population Pressure Cause Economic And Social Collapse?
- Is Starvation Inevitable?
- Are You Going To Be Free?

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