CSULA - Geology 357: Cities And Global Change

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Topic #11 - Cities And Global Change
Geol 357: Urban Geology

I. Five Major Changes Of The Coming Millennium

A. The End of the Fossil Fuel Age
B. The Beginning of the Solar Age
C. The Development of a Conservation Ethic
D. Stabilization or Decline of the Human Population
E. Achieving a Sustainable Society

II. The End of the Fossil Fuel Age

A. There are Two Reasons for the End of the Fossil Fuel Age
- 1. Over consumption and loss of the petroleum resource
- 2. Environmental degradation caused by fossil fuels
B. Loss of the Petroleum Resource
- 1. Use of fossil fuels will be a brief and passing event that has had an enormous impact on human history.
- 2. The consumption of any finite resource follows a bell curve
  - a. The peak of oil production in the US was in 1970
  - b. The world peak production will probably be 2001 or very close to that date
  - c. Oil discovery by decade peaked in the 1960's
  - d. Discovery of giant oil fields (>500 million bbls) peaked in 1965
C. Global Warming as an Example of Environmental Degradation
- 1. There is strong evidence that the Earth is warming naturally due to solar fluctuation and changes in the Earth's orbit
  - a. Humans are probably aggravating the situation
- 2. C02, methane, water vapor, fluorocarbons and other gases heat the Earth with the greenhouse effect
  - a. The atmosphere is transparent to visible wave lengths but opaque to infrared
- 3. C02 concentrations
  - a. Concentration has risen in all parts of the world
    - 1) 280 ppm in pre-industrial air
    - 2) 365 ppm on average in 1999
- 4. Possible scenario
  - a. C02 and other gases cause warming of oceans and atmosphere
    - 1) Evaporation increases worsening the warming
  - b. Large temperature changes in the poles melts ice reducing the albedo and raising temperature
    - 1) Melting of west Antarctica ice sheet grounded in seawater raises oceans 18 - 20 feet
      - a) Occurs after the year 2025
  - c. Worldwide climatic changes occur
    - 1) Most of U.S. Becomes drier
- 5. Average global temperature rise by 2025 may be 5ºF
  - a. 4ºF at the poles and 4ºF at the equator
  - b. Past temperatures
    - 1) Holocene interglacial periods +4ºF
    - 2) Pleistocene glacial periods -23ºF
- 6. The solution is to get off of fossil fuels
- 7. Examples of the negative consequences of global warming
  - a. Mid-latitude climates shift northward 550 km
  - b. Loss of the eastern hardwood forest
  - c. Expansion of tropical diseases - malaria, dengue, yellow fever, viral encephalitis
    - 1) Addition of 50 to 80 million malaria cases
  - d. Coastal flooding
  - e. Expanded deserts
  - f. Loss of mountain glaciers
  - g. Reef damage
  - h. Reduced ocean productivity
D. Other Examples of Environmental Problems
- 1. Acid Rain
- 2. Oil spills
- 3. Mine waste
- 4. Polluted groundwater
- 5. Traffic congestion

III. The Solar Age

A. Changes in the Human Energy Base Cause Enormous Societal Changes
- 1. Old ways of life disappear and social, economic, and political institutions are radically changed
- 2. The transition from wood to coal brought the demise of the medieval era and the rise of the Industrial Revolution
  - a. Occurred in Europe between the thirteenth and sixteenth centuries
- 3. Transition began in England around 1250AD when the people of Newcastle were without wood and were freezing
  - a. Henry II gave them coal to burn
  - b. Pope Pius II was amazed to see coal being used in England in the fifteenth century
  - c. By 1700 coal had replaced wood in England and the same was true of Europe by 1850
- 4. Coal yielded more energy but required the invention of the steam engine to mine it
  - a. Society radically changed
  - b. Every aspect of modern life became dependent of fossil fuels
B. Definition Of Solar Energy
- 1. This is energy received from the sun by the Earth in the last 100 years
  - a. Hydroelectric power
  - b. Wind power
    - 1) PG & E 83 MW by 1990
    - 2) SCE 43 MW by 1990
- c. Wood
- d. Ocean currents
- e. Passive and direct solar power
C. Advantages of Solar Power
- 1. Solar energy received by the Earth is enormous 17.7 X 1016 watts
  - a. 100,000 X world electrical output
- 2. Infinite supply
- 3. Constant supply
- 4. No pollution
- 5. No boycotts
- 6. Biologically compatible
D. Passive Solar Power
- 1. Space heating
- 2. Water heating
E. Direct Solar - Converts Sunlight to Electricity
- 1. This is very expensive
- 2. Modern 1000MW plant would require 42 sq. Km. or 16.2 sq. miles
  - a. 10,000 MW input
  - b. Surface receives 0.024 watts/cm2
    - 1) 1010 watts/(0.024 watts/cm2) = 42 sq. km.
  - c. A future approach might involve satellite receivers microwaving the energy to Earth

IV. The Age of Conservation

A. Finite Resources
- 1. Preservation of finite resources will become a way of life
  - a. food, water, energy, and natural resources will be conserved
B. Some Hopeful Legislation
- 1. Energy Policy & Conservation Act 1975
  - a. set the fleet average gas mileage
  - 20 miles/gallon
  - 27.5 miles/gallon
- 2. Building Energy Performance Standards 1976
- 3. Energy Tax Act 1978
  - a. progressive tax on gas guzzlers
- 4. National Energy Act 1978
- a. establishes standards and labels for appliances
C. Some Changes in the Future
- 1. Energy will be more expensive
- 2. Urban sprawl will end
- 3. People will live close to their employment and strive to minimize transportation
- 4. People will be highly educated about conservation
- 5. Growth will not be viewed as a positive thing

V. Population Stabilizes or Declines

A. Population Growth will End on a World Wide Basis
- 1. The present growth spurt will be recognized as a brief event separating two very long periods of zero population growth.
B. The People Peak will Follow the Oil Peak
- 1. The transition from the present growth to the future stable population will be the difficult period
  - a. The level that the population achieves (carrying capacity) will depend on the condition of the environment and the remaining resources.

VI. Achieving a Sustainable Society will be the Ultimate Goal

A. The Concept of Sustained Yield
- 1. Resources are used at the same rate that they are created
- 2. The resource base is never destroyed
B. Human History can be Divided into 3 Phases
- 1. Pre-industrial phase - long period of sustained yield with little economic growth
- 2. The industrial phase - short period of over consumption when machines lifted all limits on growth
- 3. The de-industrial phase - industrial economies decline to a new equilibrium period of sustained yield
  - a. This stage is driven by exhaustion on non-renewable resources and environmental degradation
C. The Greatest Challenge of the New Millennium
- 1. Adjusting to the end of the age of fossil fuels and achieving a sustainable society

I. Five Major Changes Of The Coming Millennium

II. The End of the Fossil Fuel Age

III. The Solar Age

IV. The Age of Conservation

V. Population Stabilizes or Declines

VI. Achieving a Sustainable Society will be the Ultimate Goal

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